- What are the biggest areas of uncertainty? Potential threats and opportunities?
- Are your leaders aligned on scenarios and parameters to model?
- How quickly can you deploy a multidisciplinary team with the skills and experience to do this? Will the team be able to address enterprise-wide modeling needs at pace with changing business variables?
- Are your disparate planning systems—supply chain, sales, finance, workforce, etc.—able to “talk to each other” and share data uniformly and consistently?
- Are you modelling scenarios that touch your tier-two and tier-three suppliers in addition to tier one?
RESEARCH REPORT
In brief
Russia and Ukraine are vital world suppliers
~30%
of wheat
35%
of barley
75%
of sunflower seed oil
17%
of corn
What this means for profitability
Note: Stagflation refers to the combination of sluggish growth twinned with high inflation. We consider the average of the UK, Germany and France. E = expected. PP = percentage point
Four areas of focus
1. Scenario planning
Remember: Good scenario planning isn’t a one-and-done exercise. It’s ongoing and iterative.
2. Operational risk
Hackers are increasingly fueled by ideology, rather than traditional financial motives, which makes it that much harder to predict targets. 16
3. Cost reduction
Quickly cutting general costs is a playbook move in a crisis, and this situation is no exception.
4. Divestment decisions
1,000
The approximate number of global companies that have announced full or partial withdrawal from Russia. 18
Eye on growth
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